Nigeria’s ambition of becoming a $1 trillion economy has come under fresh scrutiny, with an economic analyst arguing that current economic realities, fiscal policies and development challenges make the target difficult to achieve within the projected timeline.
The analyst compared the current target with the country’s previous Vision 2020 programme, which sought to position Nigeria among the world’s top 20 economies by the year 2020.
He recalled that the initiative attracted widespread support when it was launched but failed to achieve its objective. According to him, Nigeria ranked 32nd globally at the end of 2020 and currently occupies the 42nd position, contrary to earlier projections.
The analyst argued that governments often introduce ambitious economic projections when major policy promises remain unmet, warning that unrealistic expectations could distract attention from present economic challenges.
Discussing the prospects of achieving a $1 trillion economy, the analyst noted that Nigeria’s reported Gross Domestic Product stood at about $290.5 billion by the end of 2025. He cited GDP growth rates of 2.7 per cent in 2023, 3.4 per cent in 2024, 3.9 per cent in 2025 and a projected 4.2 per cent for 2026.
According to him, the current growth trajectory remains significantly below the 10 per cent annual economic growth target contained in President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope agenda. The analyst argued that sustained higher growth over many years would be required before Nigeria could realistically attain a trillion-dollar economy.
The commentary also questioned the country’s budget implementation record, pointing to repeated delays and what it described as weak capital expenditure releases.
According to the analyst, many advanced economies devote more than half of their annual budgets to capital projects, while Nigeria continues to allocate a larger share of public spending to recurrent expenditure. He referenced reports indicating that only about five per cent of the N54.93 trillion road budget had been released, arguing that such spending patterns limit infrastructure development and economic expansion.
The analyst further expressed concern over Nigeria’s debt profile, noting reports that debt servicing consumes a significant share of government revenue.
He also referred to plans by the Federal Government to secure additional external borrowing, arguing that loans directed toward consumption rather than productive investments may have limited impact on long-term economic growth. According to the analysis, countries that have successfully attained $1 trillion economy status typically sustained investment in infrastructure, healthcare, education and productive sectors over several decades.
The article also identified abandoned public projects as another challenge to economic development. Citing reports of more than 12,000 abandoned infrastructure projects nationwide, the analyst argued that stronger policy continuity and completion of inherited projects are essential to achieving sustained economic growth.
He maintained that long-term development planning, consistent investment and effective implementation of public projects remain critical requirements for Nigeria to realise its economic ambitions.
