The Nigeria Revenue Service, NRS, says Nigeria’s economy is showing strong signs of recovery after painful reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu.
In an internal report, the revenue service said the economy had moved from severe macroeconomic distress towards greater stability and resilience. The NRS attributed the improvement to reforms addressing major distortions inherited by the administration, including fuel subsidies, foreign exchange policies, weak oil production and an underdeveloped tax base.
According to the report, the reforms initially created significant economic difficulties but have since produced improvements across several key indicators.
The NRS said inflation was retreating while the balance of payments, oil production, tax collections and the country’s productive capacity had improved. Economic growth increased from 2.74 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent during the first half of 2026. External reserves also climbed from $3.99 billion in 2023 to $51.9 billion by July 2026.
The balance of payments moved from a $3.34 billion deficit to a $2.38 billion surplus in the first quarter of 2026. Nigeria’s trade position also strengthened, with the trade surplus rising from about N44.7 billion to N7.55 trillion during the same period.
The report linked higher oil production to improvements in Nigeria’s economic position. Oil output increased from about 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026. The figure represented 104 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.
The NRS also credited the naira-for-crude arrangement involving Dangote Refinery and other domestic refineries with helping Nigeria move towards becoming a net exporter of petroleum products after years of dependence on imports. Capital importation similarly increased from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, capital inflows reached $10.37 billion.
Tax collections also recorded a significant increase, according to the report. Revenue rose from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion by July 2026. The NRS attributed the increase to the digitisation of tax administration, four new tax reform laws, restructuring of the revenue service and an executive order aimed at closing revenue loopholes.
The report said the Nigerian Exchange market capitalisation also expanded significantly, rising from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026. It linked the market’s growth partly to improved macroeconomic confidence, banking-sector recapitalisation and increased domestic institutional investment.
The report highlighted developments in agriculture and the compressed natural gas, CNG, programme. It said federal agricultural allocation increased from N228.4 billion in 2023 to N826.5 billion in the 2025 budget.
Measures included releasing strategic grain reserves, establishing a N100 billion National Agricultural Development Fund, distributing fertilisers and promoting agricultural mechanisation. The NRS said food prices had fallen by about 50 per cent by March 2026, citing the Ministry of Agriculture.
It, however, cautioned that agricultural policies would require several planting seasons before their full impact on production becomes evident. On CNG, the report said more than 100,000 vehicles had been converted by 2026. It added that the programme had attracted over $2 billion in investment and created more than 10,000 jobs.
The NRS acknowledged that Nigeria’s debt stock increased from N87.4 trillion in 2023 to N159.28 trillion in late 2025. However, it said the debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 38 per cent in 2023 to 35.5 per cent in 2025 and 32.3 per cent in 2026. The revenue service described the decline as the first sustained reduction in more than a decade.
It also said debt servicing as a share of government revenue had fallen from 68 per cent to an IMF-projected 53 per cent. The NRS concluded that while significant challenges remain, the economic indicators increasingly point towards recovery following the difficult reforms implemented by the Tinubu administration.
